Is the Employment Security Department playing fast and loose with the unemployment statistics?
In May, the Employment Security Department (ESD) changed the way it reported the county unemployment statistics. By changing the scale and colors used to report the data, ESD altered the way in which the casual reader assesses the magnitude of the unemployment situation in Washington. At a glance, some counties appear less affected by COVID-19 than they really are.
As they say, “I can prove anything by statistics except the truth.” – George Canning.
The April unemployment statistics, published in early May by ESD, were based on a scale graduated in 2% increments. The result is below, and it shows that while the largest unemployment is in Western Washington, Eastern Washington has significant unemployment as well. The darker blue areas show where the highest unemployment is, the lighter areas have less.
Posted on 4/7/2020 on the Employment Security Department website.
Later in May, the image was updated to show the increased unemployment rates caused by the ‘Stay Home Stay Safe’ order, but the scale was changed, reducing the number of color bands from 7 to 4 and the first band now starts at 12%. This change significantly emphasized Puget Sound unemployment numbers over Eastern Washington. In fact, at first glance, if the reader doesn't pay close attention to the color scale, the white area in Eastern Washington would suggest there is little or no unemployment where in fact, the unemployment in Grant County in May is as high as King County was in April.
Eastern Washington’s unemployment, on average, is only slightly lower than King County, yet the graph would indicate, based on its new bands, that the unemployment rate is significantly lower.
A better approach would have been to keep the number of bands and the range increment size consistent each month.
Adjusting reporting graph scales month over month mis-leads the reader and makes it difficult to predict trends and compare data. A consistent approach to presenting statistics should be used by ESD to ensure no misunderstanding of the current unemployment situation facing Washington State.
