The legislature says the proposed state income tax will only impact millionaires.
Anyone who has been paying attention knows that isn’t true. And I’m willing to put my money on the line to prove it.
If any legislators or supporters of the income tax actually believe it won’t be expanded to include innovators and small businesses making less than $1 million, they can accept my bet.
But I bet they won’t.
Senate Bill 6346 would create a new state income tax at a rate of 9.9% on income over one million dollars per household. The promise is that it would only hit a limited number of people and create a more equitable tax system.
But legislators themselves admit that is a lie. The main sponsor of the income tax told KUOW radio that he lies when it is politically convenient.
Additionally, these same legislators have a consistent pattern of dishonesty when it comes to taxes.
In 2021, legislators promised the new tax on CO2 emissions wouldn’t be applied to agricultural fuels. In 2021, legislators adopted a new capital gains tax, saying they would keep the rate low. In 2024, an overwhelming, bipartisan majority of legislators voted to ban income taxes in Washington state.
All of those promises were broken. There are many others I could mention.
Too often, politicians don’t pay a price for dishonesty. So, let’s add some accountability.
People avoid taxes. Bets are a tax on dishonesty (or foolishness). I’m generally not a big fan of taxes, but when they create accountability for dishonesty, they are a useful tool.
I will bet $100 that if an income tax passes, that by July 2031 it will be applied to income below $1 million per year. If I lose, I will pay $100 to the charity of your choice. If I win, you will donate $100 to Plastic Bank, a social business that keeps plastic out of the ocean.
How can I be so sure the rate will go down and why did I choose 2031?
First, even if the legislature adopts the income tax, the state still faces a budget shortfall of more than $1 billion starting next year. Reckless spending put the state in a position that even with yet another tax increase, legislators will still need more money to maintain current levels of spending.
Second, the legislature will try not to reduce the income threshold immediately, but raising that amount of money is hard. The options are sales taxes – which hit everyone – or the B&O tax, which is already punitive. My guess is that legislators will avoid changing the threshold in the 2027-29 budget, but almost certainly will for the 2029-31 budget and absolutely will by the 2031-33 budget.
That sounds far off, but we are closer to 2031 than we are to COVID, and I still have an involuntary reaction when I see face masks.
That’s my offer. Are any legislators who support the income tax willing to put their money where their promises are?
So, what happens if the innovation-killing and unconstitutional income tax doesn’t pass?
If legislators come to their senses and kill the income tax, I will donate $250 to Plastic Bank.
If you are game to bet, email me at tmyers@washingtonpolicy.org.
I will take the first five credible bet offers of $100 each.
