Since 2015, promoters of LEAD have publicly communicated several versions of claims about how LEAD’s original research describes arrest and felony rates, and individual outcomes. These claims have been regularly repeated from 2015-2026, and recently appeared in a Seattle City Council agenda packet in support of a LEAD expansion ordinance. Common incorrect versions include:
- “LEAD reduced recidivism for all crimes by 58% [and] reduced felony charges by 39%”
- “LEAD participants 58% less likely to be arrested for any crime in any jurisdiction compared to a similarly situated control group”
- “[People who] participate in LEAD were 58% less likely to commit a new crime”
- “Odds of being on employment continuum increased 46%”
These formulations regularly confuse concepts like odds, probability, and absolute versus relative change. They also substantially overstate the study’s findings. The original research shows little or no clear positive intervention effect in these measures. The study is also separately impacted by what appears to be an early loss of statistical control, a high incidence of methodological artifacts, and significant design limitations which prevent it from establishing causality.