WPC analysis finds inflated success rates helped propel the diversion program into federal law and secure taxpayer funding nationwide
What is the Law Enforcement Assisted Diversion program (LEAD)?
LEAD is a criminal justice reform model active in over 20 states designed to divert those who use drugs and commit crimes away from arrests and jail time and toward social services, while not requiring participation from individuals beyond an initial intake and information release.
What happened?
- Since 2015, LEAD promoters have used false data to market inflated success rates, claiming 58% reductions in criminal reoffending—more than double what the study suggests.
- The study’s smaller numbers are mixed and uncertain, weakened by design flaws and demonstrating no significant differences between LEAD and non-LEAD groups for metrics like ‘total charges’ and ‘street arrests’.
- Lawmakers were misled and false numbers directly influenced legislation.
- Using the false statistics, LEAD secured nearly $100 million in federal appropriations and many millions more in state and local taxpayer dollars.
SEATTLE – False information led Congress and others to appropriate tens of millions of dollars in dozens of cities on the Law Enforcement Assisted Diversion (LEAD) model, a series of programs designed to reduce arrests for people who use drugs and commit crimes. For more than a decade, LEAD gained national popularity while marketing false claims of large crime reductions.
WPC Director of Public Safety Solutions Policy Eric Zimmerman said Washington’s members of Congress were misled and should redirect future funding to programs that will more effectively reduce criminality and help treat those with drug addictions. “The initial LEAD study exaggerates its benefits and reveals that non-warrant arrests and total charges showed no statistically significant differences for the LEAD and non-LEAD groups,” said Zimmerman. He called for Congress to begin immediate scrutiny of LEAD funding.
Since 2015, LEAD’s promoters have improperly swapped numbers from the model’s initial study, claiming criminal reoffending was “58% less likely” or “58% lower”, amounts about double or triple what the study estimated, respectively. Between 2015-2026, thousands of elected officials have been presented with false versions of LEAD’s “evidence”, with many subsequently voting to change local, state, and federal laws to promote LEAD, while also appropriating hundreds of millions of dollars for the model resulting in wasted resources and criminals escaping consequences.
Members of Congress were among the first officials misled into believing LEAD created large reductions in crime. The transcript from a July 2015 U.S. House Judiciary sub-committee meeting shows a LEAD-allied District Attorney persuading Republicans and Democrats, falsely, that Seattle’s LEAD pilot created an 80% reduction in criminal reoffending among its participants—a reduction roughly four times higher than the one mentioned in LEAD’s study. Bipartisan members of this committee became some of LEAD’s staunchest congressional supporters and helped usher it into federal law and appropriations in 2016 and 2017.
Rep. Suzan DelBene introduced an amendment to 2016’s CARA act, incorrectly claiming “LEAD successfully reduces recidivism [reoffending] by as much as 60 percent.” During debate over the amendment, Republicans echoed the 60 percent figure and congratulated Rep. DelBene on her amendment.
By 2018, LEAD was being awarded federal appropriations by name, eventually earmarked for nearly $100 million, and many millions more in state and local funding in places like Seattle and King County. LEAD’s promoters continued to headline false versions of LEAD’s research in government meetings through August 2026, until Washington Policy Center published a brief documenting the lengthy pattern of falsehoods.
The full briefing detailing how Congress was misled by LEAD promoters is available here.
