Executive Summary

Fewer minority students will enter the Fall’s 1999 freshmen class at the University of Washington than last year, a fact that has received considerable attention in the media. What is often neglected, however, is how minority students are faring at other state universities. This Policy Brief takes a broader research approach and concludes that minority students are continuing to pursue their higher education goals in Washington’s four-year university system.

As a standard of comparison, the Policy Brief looks at California’s public universities. After voters passed Proposition 209 in 1996, race could no longer be used as a factor for admissions into the University of California system. In 1998, the overall University of California system experienced a small decrease in the number of minority students enrolling that Fall. The decrease, however, was more apparent at the two elite campuses, UC Berkeley and UCLA, than in the state higher education system as a whole.

We found that this year’s (1999) minority student’s applications at UC schools are now close to those of 1997, the last year of race-based admissions. This Policy Brief will discuss the balance in applications within the UC system and why that balance points to a positive trend in minority admissions. We expect that a similar trend will develop at Washington’s public universities in coming years.

The Policy Brief addresses additional questions: How important are a student’s academic abilities and how does the educational environment of an institution contribute to that student’s success? Also, what options are available to all students who may not be academically prepared for a rigorous four-year college program?

The brief concludes that minority students are the real winners in post-Initiative 200 college admissions, as our public universities shift to standards that focus on academic success, rather than racial differences.

I. Introduction

News coverage of the decline in minority student enrollment at the University of Washington suggested the worst. UW officials blamed the drop in minority student applicants and admissions on Initiative 200, which prohibited the use of race as a factor for public college admissions, yet minority admissions are holding constant or increasing at other public universities. This report looks behind the headlines and attempts to determine what is really happening.

In California, when voters passed similarly worded Proposition 209, minority student enrollment was predicted to decline throughout the University of California system. Actually, something more complex occurred. Two years later campuses such as University of California, Riverside and University California, Irvine have experienced increases in minority student enrollment.

Evidence that the California experience may be repeated here came in a recent Seattle Times report showing an increase in minority student applicants for colleges around the state.1 Whether this is evidence that students are doing a better job in matching their preparation to admissions standards or whether the rise in applications comes from another cause is unclear on present data. Nor is it clear whether actual admissions will follow applications. Further analysis will be provided when enrollment numbers for the other five universities are available. What is clear is that minority students continue to pursue their higher education goals in Washington’s four-year system.

While the current public debate continues, very little attention is given to the race-neutral paths to success for minority students. This paper will examine available data and attempt to reach some preliminary conclusions on what Initiative 200 has meant for academically disadvantaged and academically talented minority students.

II. Numbers from the University of Washington

Students offered admissions to the University of Washington this year were required to send their deposits in by May 1st, thus securing their place in this Fall’s freshman class. Out of the total number of confirmations, the number of non-Asian minority students has dropped. African American students had a 40 percent decline in confirmations for Fall’s freshman class (from 124 in 1998 to 74 in 1999). American Indian student confirmations declined 20 percent (from 56 in 1998 to 45 in 1999). The number of Hispanic student confirmations declined 30 percent (from 205 in 1998 to 143 in 1999). The number of Asian American student confirmations increased 6 percent (from 1,108 in 1998 up to 1,176 in 1999).

These results followed a modest decline in overall student applications (down 2 percent), and a noticeable decline in minority student applicants from 1998. African American applicants declined by 17 percent; American Indian applicants by 9 percent; Hispanic applicants by 9 percent; and Asian American applicants by six percent.

Significantly, the decline in actual confirmations is greater than the decline in offers of admissions. In 1998, 53 percent of admitted African American students accepted offers to enroll. This year, the percentage accepting admission declined to 46 percent. American Indian students declined four percent; for Hispanic students, the rate declined nine percent; for Asian Americans, the acceptance rate dropped by two percent. While the reason for the change in the decline is unclear, news stories focusing on the final confirmation exaggerate the impact of race-neutral admissions. While offers of admission have declined as well, the extent of the change is less dramatic and reflects the shift in applications to other four-year colleges.

Should we have expected this?

Yes, we should have expected the decline in minority enrollment at the University of Washington. Nor should we necessarily bemoan it, if it is the natural result of treating all students equally. The passage of Initiative 200 probably deterred students who normally would have been admitted because of preferences from applying "above" their academic qualifications. An experience similar to California’s minority student enrollment pattern may be occurring in Washington State.

The table below illustrates the overall change in enrollment for the University of California system. The last year of race-based admissions was 1997. In 1998, the first year of race-neutral admissions, all student categories declined except Asian Americans and those students declining to their state race. For Fall 1999, all student categories have increased and more students were willing to state race.

Table 1:
University of California system new freshman admissions for Fall 1997, 1998, and 1999

In 1998, the first year of race-neutral admissions, elite schools such as the University of California, Berkeley, and the University of California, Los Angeles experienced declines in non-Asian minorities. In 1997, UC Berkeley enrolled 258 African American students for Fall’s freshman class (7.3 percent of the total class). That same year, 408 Chicano and 79 Latino students were enrolled. As a percentage of the freshman class, Chicano students were 11.6 percent and Latino students represented 2.2 percent. Berkeley enrolled 1,470 Asian American students, who made up 28.8 percent of Fall’s freshman. There were 1,016 white students who made up 28.8 percent of all incoming freshman.

In 1998, UC Berkeley’s non-Asian minority student enrollment decreased from 1997. Native American student enrollment decreased from 25 freshmen in 1997 to 14 in 1998 and 111 in 1999; African American students from 258 in 1997 to 95 in 1998, then up to 111 in 1999; Chicano students from 408 in 1997 to 185 in 1998 and up to 220 in 1999; and Latino students remained steady at 79 (2.2 percent of the freshman class).

Three categories consistently increased in numbers from Fall 1997 to Fall 1998. There were 1,470 Asian American students enrolled for the 1997 Fall freshman class. In 1998, Asian American students increased to 42.9 percent from 41.7 percent (from 1,470 to 1,530). The number of white students increased to 30.2 percent from 28.8 percent (from 1,016 to 1,078). The decline to state category went from 5.5 percent to 15 percent in the first year of race-neutral admissions (from 193 to 535).

The data from table 1 shows an overall increase in the number of students entering the UC system-wide freshmen class from 1997 to 1999. During this period, campuses such as Berkeley and Los Angeles experienced a decline in the number of non-Asian minorities. After 1997, the last year of race-based admissions, non-Asian minority students have declined throughout the University of California systems and individual UC campuses. In 1999, the national press reported a "rebound" in the number of non-Asian minority students within the UC system. The numbers, however, don’t illustrate a "rebound." What really is happening is a shift in the University of California system from one campus to another.

In 1997, 341 African American students were admitted at UC Riverside. The following year, the number decreased to 222. In 1999, the number is 571. In 1997, 1,021 Chicano students were admitted to UC Riverside. In 1998, the number increased to 1,270. The following year Chicano students increased to 1,722 students. Latino student numbers increased every year since 1997 with 299 students admitted that year, to 328 in 1998 to 478 in 1999. (The number of students that have stated their intent to enroll is significantly lower than the number of students admitted for all categories.) Campuses such as University California, Irvine, and the University California, Santa Clara have also experienced significant increases in the number of non-Asian minority students.

In the case of UC Riverside, the 1999 freshman class has also increased in the number of Asian American and white students. About 5,568 Asian American students were admitted for Fall 1999. In 1998, 4,096 students were admitted; the pervious year 4,176 students were admitted. For 1999 UC Riverside admitted 3,914 white students. In 1998, 1,968 students were admitted. The previous year, 1,950 students were admitted. The data indicates that UC Riverside’s freshman class increased from previous years. The increase in students appears to be the result of more aggressive outreach and recruitment, and of greater availability of financial aid.

Just as applications and admissions patterns have shifted in California, minority applications are shifting similarly in Washington state. For example, at Eastern Washington University, minority student applications increased 36 percent for Fall 1999 over last year. Western Washington University’s minority applicants increased 14.5 percent. At Washington State University overall minority applications declined 7.2 percent, but African American student applications are up to 245 from 229. White student applications are also up to 5,348 from 5,342.

III. How minority student success is achieved

Earning a college degree depends on academic success in college. Students must arrive at college with the analytical and reasoning abilities needed to succeed. Some high school graduates are prepared for elite college-level work, while others are qualified for general college level and still others need further preparation. Likewise, there are high school seniors who are prepared academically, but the learning environment at the university does not match their abilities. Thomas Sowell, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, states that mismatching student abilities will not prove academically successful: "If you are going to be mismatched, you are better off on a small campus, where you have a chance of getting special help from your professor, rather than a huge research university where most professors give little attention to undergraduates of any race."

Moreover, it’s no secret that a good K-12 education prepares any student for success in higher education. One example of what works is Frederick Douglas Academy in Harlem, New York, a high school where three-quarters of the students are African American and from low-income families, and where administrators and teachers insist on high academic standards. This year 96 percent of Frederick Douglas’ graduating seniors have been admitted to college, some to top schools like Yale, Princeton and Duke. "I’ll be happy when we get to 99 percent," says school principal Gregory Hodge.

Another example is KIPP Academy in the southwest section of Houston, Texas. The student body is mostly poor and is 90% Hispanic. It is also Houston’s top-performing middle school, because its education program maintains high standards for every student. The school’s motto is, "There are no shortcuts."

Academic success for all students comes from solid preparation and a match of a student’s qualifications and needs with the right college environment. The results will be a better match for students that will lead them to academic success.

IV. Community Colleges: Still a great place to start

Unfortunately, little is said about the opportunities for minority students who will not attend the UW this Fall. From some news stories, one might conclude that they are foreclosed from further education. In fact, for minority students, not being admitted to the UW does not end their academic careers. They have the same choices that are available to other students: to go to another state university or community college.

Like most universities, the UW would like to boast of a sizable minority student population. Diversity of people, thought and opinion is a worthy goal for any liberal arts institution. But if ethnic diversity for the sake of being diverse is achieved at the cost of damaging individual minority academic achievement, is it really a worthwhile goal? Do the benefits to the University of creating a diverse learning environment overcome the disadvantages to minority students of being placed in an academic setting for which they are not prepared? Are there other options available?

As we have seen, applications to the state’s other four-year institutions have increased as students seek to match their talents to admissions standards. In addition, minority students, like all other students, have an excellent community college system available to them. Recently, nationally syndicated columnist Clarence Page commented on the rebound in enrollment throughout the UC system: "Long before affirmative action came along, community colleges were unsung heroes in opening doors of opportunity for disadvantaged youths. They help immigrants learn English. They upgrade the skills of those who may have been shortchanged by substandard high schools. . . ."

In 1985, Washington State’s Higher Education Coordinating Board developed the Inter-College Transfer Program. The program established joint cooperation with two-year academic programs to four-year institutions. Students who are not currently enrolled in high school and who have earned at least 40 or more quarter (or 27 semester) credits of transferable work at an accredited college or university will be considered for a reserved slot for admissions to a four-year institution. Washington State has one of the highest transfer rates from community college to four-year institutions of any state. The Higher Education Board reports that qualified associate transfer students commonly are admitted to their first choice four-year institution

Attending a community college is probably not as exciting as living on a large four-year campus. The good news is that community colleges provide a solid start for students whose preparation falls short of the rigor required at the state’s four-year colleges. Moreover, the learning environments at community colleges are beneficial to students, of any race, who are struggling to overcome academic deficiencies.

V. Conclusion: There is no doom and gloom for minority students

Before there were racial preferences, a student matched his academic preparation to a school’s requirements, applied and most likely was accepted. Those who did not qualify for more elite institutions often went to a local community college and, if they were successful there, eventually transferred to a four-year university. All college-bound students have always made these kinds of decisions.

And many minority students took advantage of the excellent education provided by the nation’s historically black colleges and universities, schools that still produce more African American engineers and doctors than the elite universities.

During the public debate, a UW admissions officer said the passage of Initiative 200 would make UW, "more elitist and racist."16 The truth be told, there is a big pool of academically talented minority students. UC Berkeley Admissions Director Bob Laird said of this year’s Fall minority freshman, "We had stronger applicants from African American and Chicano communities." As Wallace Loh recently wrote: "[I-200] shifted the attention from admissions preferences --- achieving diversity of the cheap --- to expanding the pipeline for qualified minority students…."

Recruiting academically talented minority students means colleges will compete with each other for the top minority students. And less elite universities will find their success in maintaining diversity requires them to adopt UC Riverside’s example and reach out into the community to improve educational preparation for all. This might mean more work for college administrators, but it is good news for minority students.

About the Author

Robert Holland is a native of Washington and a graduate of Washington State University where he earned a degree in Public Relations. Holland is the Director of the Equal Citizenship Project, which monitors the implementation of Initiative 200, and is a project of the Washington Institute Foundation. Holland has researched and written on Seattle School District’s controversial "intergration positive" policy, and on Governor Locke’s implementation of Initiative 200.

The Equal Citizenship Project was made possible by grants from The John M. Olin Foundation and The Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation.