As the Director of the Center for Transportation Policy, Michael Ennis, presents the first in a series of Policy Notes on the Sound Transit Phase 2 package and its companion measure the Regional Transportation Investment District (ST2/RTID) package, which will likely appear on the 2007 ballot.
In 2007, Sound Transit intends to ask residents in King, Pierce and Snohomish counties to pay for its second phase of public transportation projects. Commonly known as ST2, the package will expand on its first phase, which was approved in 1996. These new projects will include extending light rail, the Sounder rail and the ST Express bus systems.
The WPC's Center for Transportation Policy's analysis includes a brief overview of the three options that will make up ST2 and goes on to analyze the potential costs of the options. If the Sound Transit Board chooses the largest package, the combined costs of both phases would total about $35.2 billion.
"There are 1.2 million people estimated to move into our region in the next twenty years," Ennis says. “Spending $35.2 billion to move only 29% of these people is inefficient and will not reduce congestion.
The report makes the following conclusions:
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Comparing Sound Transit's ridership projections with the total cost of both phases reveals that the cost to move one passenger from a private automobile to the Sound Transit system is extremely expensive.
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Spending $35 billion to move less than 29% of the region's projected population growth by 2030 is not only expensive, its benefits are not even enough to reduce today's congestion at today's current population.
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It would be cheaper for Sound Transit to pay the estimated 351,000 riders $100,000 each to stay home. The effect on traffic congestion would be the same, we would not have to wait until 2030, and it would save taxpayers more than $100 million.
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Given that the Sound Transit Board will move forward with choosing a proposal, it appears that Option B will provide a greater benefit than either of the other two options once costs are factored in.
"At a cost of about $89,000 to $100,000 per person, the price for Sound Transit to move one person to its public transportation system is extremely expensive," says WPC President Dann Mead Smith. "To put this in perspective, under King County's recently approved Transit Now proposal, the estimated cost to move one traveler to the county's bus system is between $833 and $1,000 per person."