Drought conditions are much more complex than whether enough rain has fallen during a given period. Washington state currently declares a drought emergency “when water supply conditions are expected to fall below 75 percent of average, and there is potential for undue hardships due to low water supply.”

The drought declaration definition is specific to surface water supplies and disregards soil moisture, aquifer recharge and other long-term factors that often cannot be addressed in a single season.

This year has featured snow in April and unprecedented rain in June, leaving much of the state with surface water at more than 100 percent of normal. However, the Natural Resources Conservation Service has still forecasted an “above normal” wildfire season for most of the Eastern half of Washington state through the latter half of the summer. The “above normal” risk assessment is arrived at based upon numerous factors including “wildfire likelihood and intensity, highly valued resources and assets and their exposure to wildfire, and the effects of wildfire on highly valued resources and assets.”

The “above normal” wildfire forecast implies conditions will dry out quickly in the hottest summer months and there will be significant fuel load to feed any wildfires that may start. 

Given differences in geography of our state and semi-arid regions, drought will always loom as a possibility. How we choose to address drought declarations should change to fit the needs of Washingtonians most effected by its devastating short- and long-term consequences.

Currently the Water Supply Advisory Committee is regularly updated about the status of our state’s surface water supply. Recommendations of that committee related to possible drought declarations are forwarded to the Emergency Water Executive Committee, which evaluates whether a drought declaration recommendation should be sent to the governor. If a recommendation is sent to the governor, the governor still has the ultimate authority to determine if a drought emergency exists.

If Washington state truly wants to be responsive to the needs of Washingtonians on both sides of the Cascades, we must streamline the drought emergency process and begin monitoring additional components related to drought, specifically soil moisture. By factoring in soil moisture, drought emergencies can be declared sooner to better help people who rely upon residual moisture to maintain their livelihoods. Soil moisture monitoring in conjunction with surface water availability also offers a more comprehensive picture of short- and long-term water availability for all communities throughout the state.

In times of anticipated drought, convening the Water Supply Advisory Committee in conjunction with the Emergency Water Executive Committee would save Washingtonians precious time in getting drought declarations approved earlier in the season, leaving us better able to plan for potential failures of water availability.

No matter what the early parts of the year look like, it is critical we be flexible and capable of responding quickly to the changing whims of the weather. As we have seen this year, drought can strike even when there is snow in April and unusually wet weather in June.

Streamlining the process and better monitoring of related conditions would allow us to respond and prepare faster—in agriculture, forestry, and wildfire prevention. Earlier planning can lessen the severity of impact. 

Washington state is always likely to face the threat of drought, but it’s time we did it smarter. 

Pam Lewison is a fourth-generation farmer and the research director for the Washington Policy Center’s Initiative on Agriculture. You can read more of her work at washingtonpolicy.org.