Washington Policy Blog

Alex Fryer of Mass Transit Now!, which is the "Yes" campaign for ST2, has and continues to suggest that WPC does not agree with the $107 billion cost estimate calculated by Jim MacIsaac.

This is not true.

There is no language in any of our reports nor have I ever said the $107 billion cost estimate is inaccurate. In fact, I have looked at the methodology that MacIsaac uses and agree it is perfectly legitimate and is an accurate approach to calculating costs. Just because I did not use this method myself, does not mean that I think it's wrong.

I have emailed Alex Fryer to stop saying WPC disagrees with the MacIsaac estimate.

A fascinating article in Forbes magazine in July lays out the case to how one human being (and the company he built) is fighting tyranny in emerging markets through the proliferation of wireless devices -- cell phones.

The article -- more of a story really -- shows the determination and grit of Denis O'Brien and his company Digicel as he boldly heads into nations that most larger international wireless companies shy away from, and for good reason. For instance, when was the last time Verizon, Sprint or T-Mobile had to worry about rebel uprisings?

Another snippet from the story that carries some shock-value:

Samoan fisherman Finau Afitu
earns $80 a week, four times his pre-Digicel pay, because he can check
which markets want his fish by phone instead of walking to each one
while they go bad. "My kids can buy lunch at school now," he says.

It's hard to imagine a day before wireless phones. It's good to see risk-taking entrepreneurs find ways to spread some of the things we Americans probably take for granted.

This morning, at the Bellevue Downtown Association breakfast, we released our analysis on ST2. Here is a link to WPC's 2008 Citizens' Guide to Sound Transit, Phase 2, which can also be found on our website.

Here are the key findings of the report:

• ST2 would spend about $22.8 billion, yet serve only 0.4 percent of all trips in 2030.

• ST2 would shift only 0.84 percent of passenger vehicles from the road to transit by 2030.

• ST2 would spend $22.8 billion to reduce VMT by only 0.867 percent.

• The cost for ST2 to serve one additional trip would be about $368,000. Under Transit Now, the cost for King County to serve one additional trip is about $10,000.

• The ST2 proposal would be 37 times less efficient than a traditional bus system like the one in King County.

• ST2 would increase traffic congestion for passenger cars and freight trucks by about 25 percent across the I-90 bridge.

• ST2 would reduce lane capacity on I-90 by 20 percent during the morning and afternoon peak commute periods.

• ST2 would eliminate subarea equity protections.

• Not counting CO2 emitted during construction, ST2 would reduce regional CO2 emissions by up to only 1.11 percent. The same reduction could be achieved through purchasing carbon offsets for only $2.3 million.

The Seattle Times today correctly points out that when it comes to dealing with the $3.2 billion deficit people are in no mood for a tax increase, but they get it wrong when they say Gregoire and Rossi should talk more about what they want the government to do less of.  That's because no matter who is governor, the state is going to spend more next year.  Lost in the reporting about the deficit is the fact that Olympia lawmakers will have $2.4 billion more to spend next year compared to the current budget.  Of course this is less than the $5.6 billion more they were hoping to get, resulting, to the disappointment of lawmakers, in a $3.2 billion deficit.

To folks in Olympia a slowing in the rate of revenue increase FEELS like a cut, even though we taxpayers are providing them with more money than ever.  This paradox explains why politicians talk constantly of chronic budget crisis and painful spending "cuts," while taxpayers never feel any actual financial relief.

Sure, some state programs will need more money next year, while others should get less (like the $160 million in waste we identify in our Washington State Piglet Book), but the bottom line is Olympia lawmakers are going to control considerably more of our money next year than they do now.  Lawmakers and the governor (whomever he or she is) will have to set firm priorities within a rising budget - after all, that's their job - but there is no question overall spending is going to go up.  Of course, if Olympia hadn't cranked locked-in spending by more than 34% over the last two budgets, we wouldn't face this problem in the first place.

In a press release today, Sound Transit says it has carried more than "ten million riders" since its inception and averages about "61,000 riders per weekday."

This is not true.

These figures represent the number of trips, not riders, served by Sound Transit. And trips do not equal riders.

For example, a rider who makes a round trip commute to and from work counts as two trips. If that same rider took a bus to lunch and back, he counts as making four total trips during the day.

Because daily trips can double, triple and sometimes quadruple count the same individual, trips should be adjusted to estimate unique riders. The standard assumption is that single riders will equal 45 percent of trips. To look at it another way, 45 percent assumes less than half of total trips in a day will be the same person making a round trip. This does not capture all of the double counting of a single rider, but it is closer to accurately estimating how many different individuals will ride a transit system.

So Sound Transit has actually carried the equivalent of 4.5 million riders and averages only about 27,450 riders per day.

Sound Transit's numbers are not insignificant, but they should not be reported at RIDERS because it gives an inaccurate representation of how many different people actually use the Sound Transit system.

In response to today's revenue forecast the Governor said she is "directing the Office of Financial Management to locate additional budget savings of $200 million, without affecting vital programs." Hopefully this effort will have more success than her August request that state agencies not sign personal service contracts unless they are an emergency.

Here are examples of some of the personal service contracts signed since the Governor issued this contract freeze:

• CTED: $400,000 - "The purpose of this contract is to provide tourism and trade services to Washington in the nations of China, Japan & France."

• Department of Archaeology and Historic Preservation: $149,714 - "Develop a feasibility study for a Washington State Maritime Heritage Area."

• State Parks and Recreation Commission: $254,701 - "Additional work to address additional funding from the legislature for the Seminary design at Saint Edward State Park."

August Personal Service Contracts Filed (90 contracts)
August Personal Service Contracts Reported (125 contracts)

Bellevue schools are back in session, which is great.  However, we still face serious challenges in Bellevue and across Washington State in finding sufficient numbers of math and science teachers for our classrooms.  These numbers will only get worse as baby-boomers retire and we increase high school math and science requirements under CORE 24.

Today public school principals and managers are not allowed by Washington's teacher credential laws to offer employment and training to the 240,000 individuals working in the private sector who hold college degrees or higher in math and science.  Private schools are given much greater freedom to hire teachers.  Private schools are allowed to hire people with "unusual competence but without [formal teacher] certification."  RCW 28A.195.010 (3)(b). 

Shouldn't our public schools have the same flexibility as private schools to hire and train individuals of  "unusual competence" to fill shortage areas?

Instead, Washington law requires talented engineers, scientists, computer programmers, architects, accountants and others who are interested in teaching at a public school to go through a lengthy and expensive "alternate" certification process.  Ugh.  No wonder shortages persist.