Half way through 2011, light rail ridership is only 35% of annual projection
Sound Transit officials just released their 2nd Quarter Ridership Report and once again, fewer people are using light rail than what officials estimated.
Officials projected Central Link Light Rail would serve about 10.3 million passenger trips for the full year of 2011. Through the first six months, Central Link has only carried 3.6 million passenger trips, or only about 35% of the total annual projection.
To put this in perspective, Sound Transit officials first told voters in 1996 that light rail would carry 32.6 million passenger trips by 2010. Light rail is on track to only carry about 6 million trips in 2011.
Who will get fired for this? No one. This is why the state legislature should make Sound Transit's governing board directly elected by voters.
Comments
revised light rail forecast
In early 2011, Sound Transit revised its Seattle light rail annual forecast for the year to 8.3 million, a reduction of 2 million from the 10.3 million forecast approved for the 2011 budget that was ginned up in the optimism of rising ridership during the summer of 2010. Ridership fell off month by month from July 2010 onward, much to the surprise of Sound Transit staff.
The inability of Sound Transit to modify a forecast posted in the approved 2011 budget before the budget year began represents a process failing, in addition to whatever needs to be said about how lousy the actual light rail ridership is compared to the expectations set in 2003 when the Federal funding grant for the present line was approved.
Admittedly, the light rail operating today is way shorter than the line promised to be done by now when the first taxation was approved in 1996. That is the reason for most of the gap between today's ridership and the 100 thousand plus promised originally.
From watching light rail ridership closely (documented with day by day graphics at http://www.bettertransport.info/pitf/Linkpassengercount.htm ) I would estimate the pre-recession expectation for 2011 light rail ridership for the Airport to Seattle CBD line as built to be 11 million or higher. I estimate that 2011 will come in between 7 and 8 million.
What's ironic is that when the present Seattle Airport line was approved, the configuration and the rider forecast did not include Stadium Station, one place where Sound Transit is finding a big source of customers in today's operations, especially in summer.