More Bucks For Sound Transit Won't Mean Fewer Cars On Road
May 2007
Does size matter?
If you’re Sound Transit it does.
In 1996, Sound Transit officials said phase 1 would cost $3.9 billion and take 10 years to complete. The cost of that phase is now approaching $15 billion and will not be complete until 2020.
The Sound Transit Board recently agreed to spend an additional $6 billion on their phase 2 ballot proposal (ST2). According to Sound Transit, this brings the total cost of ST2, including inflation, from $17 billion to $23 billion.
The additional money will be used to expand the light rail line from the Tacoma Dome to Ash Way in Snohomish County, build four new parking garages, a new transit center in Bothell and two Sounder rail stations. It would also pay for a surface trolley line in Seattle.
Sound Transit now estimates that spending the additional $6 billion will increase total system ridership by only 8,000 riders per day, or $750,000 per rider.
As Sound Transit spending grows, its efficiency at reducing traffic congestion shrinks.
Similar to financing a home, interest on the debt must also be paid. So if voters approve ST2, they will commit to spending a total of $28 billion more just on transit.
Before the $6 billion increase in spending, the cost to move one person from the roadway to the ST2 system was $104,000. Now, the cost would be $135,000 per person. Factoring in interest on the debt brings the total cost to $165,000 per person.
To put this in perspective, King County voters recently passed a ballot measure called Transit Now. King County said Transit Now will remove 50,000 passenger vehicles from the roadways by adding 175 new buses. The expansion will cost taxpayers about $50 million by 2008. Under Transit Now, the estimated cost to move one traveler from the roadway to Metro Transit is $1,000; sharply more efficient than the ST2 proposal.
Sound Transit claims spending $28 billion to expand the region’s public transportation network is justified by the need to keep pace with the projected population increases.
According to Sound Transit, 1.2 million more people will live in this region by 2030.
But based on Sound Transit’s latest ridership estimates, ST2 will only serve 14% of the projected population increase. That leaves more than 1 million new people to spill onto our already congested roadways.
Enter the Regional Transportation Investment District (RTID).
The RTID is considered the roads piece of the “roads and transit” package and would fund about $14 billion (with interest), in regional road improvements.
For voters, the two measures are linked and would spend a combined total, including interest of $42 billion.
These road improvements are designed to reduce specific choke points and will have a measurable effect in reducing traffic congestion. But with only a fraction of the funding as ST2, the unbalanced package does not provide enough money for the region’s most pressing road needs. Important Pierce County projects are in danger of falling off the RTID list, like the Cross Base Highway.
What does a $42 billion tax increase mean to the average family?
Until now, it has been difficult to understand how these tax burdens add up in the context of an average family budget. Both RTID and Sound Transit attempt to illustrate their ‘bottom line’ costs, but without the perspective of how much we currently pay it is difficult for taxpayers to judge the actual burden.
Furthermore, the agencies’ estimates are not always accurate and typically jump between household tax burdens and individual tax burdens. For example, the RTID’s revised Blueprint for Progress estimates that if the combined package is approved, the average cost per household would increase by $218 a year.
But this assumes a vehicle ownership rate of only one car per household. In reality, the average vehicle ownership rate in Washington is 2.01. This means the true household tax burden for the ST2/RTID proposal is actually $286 per year.
Today, Pierce County families pay an average of $1,184 per year in transportation taxes. Under the ST2/RTID package, families would experience a 24% increase in their annual transportation tax burden.
The ST2/RTID measure will be one of the largest tax increases in state history and voters need as much information as possible to make an informed decision. Knowing the benefits and costs of roads and transit will help families make the decision that is best for them.