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Global Warming
A Bunch of Hot Air?

by Richard Derham, former president, Washington Institute
1998-02


In the aftermath of the recent Kyoto Conference on Global Warming, the world is being urged to adopt expensive and intrusive regulations, including an increasingly interventionist international regime of economic and social regulations. All are designed to address what is described as “global warming.” 

As you read about Kyoto and Global Warming, ask yourself whether you are getting a balanced presentation of the scientific data which underpins calls for drastic action.  The following questions may serve as a useful checklist to test the objectivity of any news story or article you read.

Does the reporter mention the increase in CO2 levels in the last century?

Do they report that two-thirds of the increase has been since 1940, whereas virtually all the temperature increase was before 1940?[1]

  • Do they report that only 2% of all greenhouse gasses result from human activity?[2]

  • Do they advocate increased nuclear energy as the clean alternative to fossil fuel power generation?

Does the media report that global temperatures have increased 1 degree in the past century?

  • Do they report that virtually all increases occurred before 1940, before the Post-war industrialization?[3]

  • Do they remind you that the earth was recovering from a “mini ice age” which lasted from 1450 through 1850? [4] Do they ask whether the temperature increases through 1940 could be a natural extension of those changes?

  • Do they report results from the most accurate measuring devices: US weather satellites launched in 1979, which show a slight reduction in overall temperatures in the last 18 years?[5]

  • Do they mention that growing areas in the US free of the risk of killing frosts have moved south by 100 miles in the last 50 years?[6]

  • Do they mention evidence that the world cooled by one-half degree in the last twenty years (perhaps because of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption, perhaps for other reasons)? [7]

  • Do they question whether natural causes such as fluctuation in the sun’s brightness could be the reason for any climate change? [8]

Do they tell you about scientific predictions that temperature will rise by 2 to 5 degrees?

  • Do they report that the same scientists in 1989, predicted an 9 degree rise?[9]

  • Do they mention the fears in the 1970s of an approaching ice age?[10]

Do they demonstrate the threat of rising sea levels by showing the Space Needle barely rising above the waters?

  • Do they tell you that ice cap melt would only produce a 1-3 foot rise in sea levels, barely enough to get Elliott Avenue wet?[11]

  • Do they report that the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (“IPCC”) predicted a rise in sea level of 5 feet in 1988, but now is predicting  only 11 to 16 inches?[12]

  • Do they discuss studies that suggest that global warming could lower sea levels?[13]

Do TV reports visualize global warming by shots of Alaskan glaciers calving?

  • Do they mention that all glaciers calve at their tips, even growing glaciers?

  • Do they remind you that the Bering Glacier in Alaska is growing? [14]Or that Glaciers are advancing in Greenland?[15]

  • Do they report that Riggs Glacier has receded more than 45 miles from the time of its discovery in 1798 through 1972, clearly an on-going process which preceded industrialization?[16]

Do they discuss the increased frequency of hurricanes?

  • Do they mention that Atlantic hurricane activity (where records are the most consistent over time) show that hurricane activity from 1970 through 1987 was only half the level of activity from 1947 through 1969?[17]

Do they discuss both beneficial as well as adverse effects of climate change?

  • Do they report that Greenland was settled by the Vikings because of the productive farm land which is now covered by glaciers?[18]

Do they tell you about the “scientific consensus?”

  • Do they report that only 17% of the members of the American Meteorological Society and the American Geophysical Society believe that human activities have caused temperature change?[19]

  • If they quote the “letter of 2700 scientists to the President” about global warming, do they also tell you about the 1995 conference of climatologists (the Leipzig Declaration on Global Warming) declaring that most scientists believe that actual observations from earth satellites show no climate warming whatsoever?[20]

Are they candid about the true goals of some advocates of the Kyoto process?

  • Do they remind you that Under Secretary of State Tim Wirth stated:

“We’ve got to ride the global warming issue.  Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, we will be doing the right things in terms of economic policy and environmental policy. (emphasis added.)[21]


[1] Global Warming, A Political, Economic and Scientific Backgrounder, published by Citizens for a Sound Economy Foundation, pg. 10, citing Sallie Baliunas testimony before the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, Sept 17, 1996; Gregg Easterbrook, A Moment of the Earth, Viking Press, 1995, pg. 279.

[2] The Economist, Nov 29, 1997, pg. 83

[3] Gregg Easterbrook, A Moment of the Earth, Viking Press, 1995, pg. 279; Global Warming: A Political, Economic and Scientific Backgrounder, published by Citizens for a Sound Economy Foundation, pg. 10, citing Sallie Baliunas testimony before Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, Sept 17. 1996 According to Vincent Gray, the surface temperatures since 1854 have varies as follows:

            1851-1879       increase by 0.2 degrees Celsius

            1879-1919       decreased    0.3. degrees Celsius

            1920-1945       increased     0.65 degrees Celsius

            1945-1978       decreased     0.2 degrees Celsius

            1978-1990       increased      0.3 degrees Celsius

Vincent Gray Climate Change, 95: An Appraisal, pg. 11-13, (The Heartland Institute, Sept 10, 1997)

[4] Dixy Lee Ray, Environmental Overkill: What Ever Happened to Common Sense, 1992, pg. 19. 

[5]  In fact, from 1979 through April 1997, satellite measurements show a cooling of 0.09 degrees Centigrade. Robert Balling, Jr., “Calmer Weather: The Spin on Greenhouse Hurricanes,” Competitive Enterprise Institute, May 1997, pg. 14.

            See also statement of John Cristy, a scientist who heads NASA’s Temperature study: “We don’t see any global warming in our data and our satellites monitor the entire world, not just urban areas like the ground temperatures show.”  Quotes in Gregg Easterbrook, A Moment on Earth, Viking Press, pg. 280

[6] Ray, “Environmental Overkill” at 19.  Dr. Ray also notes that citrus fruit used to grow as far north as the Carolinas and no cannot grow north of Orlando Florida, Id pg. 20

[7] Vincent Gray, “Climate Change 95: An Appraisal” The Heartland Institute, Sept 10, 1997.  Gray points out that temperatures fell 0.2 degrees Centigrade from 1945 to1978 while atmosphere carbon dioxide rose 9%; Global Warming, a Political, Economic and Scientific Backgrounder, Citizens for a Sound Economy Foundation, pg. 9.

[8]  Sallie Baliunas, and Willie Soon, “Solar Variability and Global Climatic Change,” in “Global Warming, the Science and Politics,” The Fraser Institute, 1997.

[9] Jeremy Rabkin, “Greenhouse Politics,” Commentary, Nov 1997, pg. 40; Michael Sanera and Jane S. Shaw, “Facts, Not Fear,” 1996, pg. 152.

[10] Nigel Calder, “In the Grip of the New Ice Age,” International Wildlife, July 1975; Douglas Colligan, :Brace yourself for Another Ice Age,” Science Digest, February 1975; “Are We Headed for a New Ice Age?” Current, May/June 1976.

[11] Michael Sanera and Jane S Shaw, Facts, Not Fear,” pg. 152.

[12] Jeremy Rabkin, “Greenhouse Politics,” Commentary, Nov 1997, pg. 41; Gregg Easterbrook, “A Moment on the Earth” Viking Press, 1995, pg. 292.

[13] Science and Environmental Policy Project Press Release, June 1997.

[14] Gregg Easterbrook, A Moment on the Earth pg. 293.  After shrinking during the 1980’s. The Bering Glacier in central Alaska began growing, reaching a growth surge of as much as 300 feet per day.

[15] Id at 294

[16] Wild Alaska, Time Life Books, pg. 41 (1972)

[17] Robert C. Balling, Jr., “Calmer Weather: The Spin on Greenhouse Hurricanes,” Competitive Enterprise Institute, May 1997.  The author cites several studies confirming that hurricane frequency and intensity have not been increasing in recent decades.

[18] Dixy Lee Ray, “Environmental Overkill: What Ever Happened to Common Sense,” 1993, pg. 19.

[19] A 1991 poll conducted by The Gallup Organization, for the Center of Science Technology and Media asked the meteorologists two questions: whether they think that average global temperatures have increased in the past 100 years and whether, if so, they believe it is within the range of natural, not human induced, fluctuation.  Only 19% said temperatures had increased due to human activity.  Letter to the Wall Street Journal, by Harry E Cotugno, Vice President, The Gallup Organization, Dec. 18, 1997.

[20] A conference of 60 climatologists in Leipzig, Germany produced the Leipzig Declaration on Global Climate Change in Nov. 1995 . the statement states:

            “[I]t has become increasingly clear that --- contrary to conventional wisdom --- there does not exist today a general scientific consensus about the importance of greenhouse warming from the rising levels of carbon dioxide.  On the contrary, most scientists now accept the fact that actual observations from earth satellites show no climate warming whatsoever.

[21] Statement of Tim Wirth, quoted in The American Spectator, Nov 1997, pg. 53